13 Year Documented NFL Record Against the Spread: 519-393-32 for 56.9% winners at odds of -1.1282 produce an adjusted win rate of 56.3%
Documented by the National Sports Monitor (2006 – Intellisports), The Sports Monitor (2007-2012 – Intellisports), and (2013-2015 as Mike O’Connor NFL at Dr Bob Sports). All plays 2016-18 were posted in Blog and on Twitter (@MikeOConnorNFL) shortly after kickoff for full transparency/documentation.
Statistical analysis of my NFL plays all time (13 years) provides the following:
With an adjusted win percentage of 56.3% the ROI (Return on Investment) of Mike O’Connor NFL all-time is +7.33%
10,000 simulations of my average ROI (+7.33%) at an adjusted win rate of 56.3% over the course of an average 80 play season with a starting bankroll of 100,000 would produce the following results:
|Median Ending Bankroll:||
|Avg Ending Bankroll:||
|Chance of Loss at End:||
Chance of 50.00% loss:
|70% Confidence Interval:||
|95% Confidence Interval:||
Average Return of +18.34% of Bankroll per season (NFL)
The sum total return on Intellisports investments far exceed the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average & the S&P 500 over the same time period (13 years) and outperforms any other reputable NFL service that I am aware of. In addition, many other services pad their record by releasing plays where their release number isn’t widely available or just simply make up or hide their long-term records. Be very wary unless a service can produce reliable documentation of their record and you are comfortable with their overall methodology.
T-test – An important statistical test of any handicapper
The t-test can help look for evidence of forecasting skill by investigating the likelihood that a profit from a series of wagers could have happened by chance. A t-test of my NFL results over the past 13 years produces the following:
A One-Sided T-Test on an adjusted win percentage of 56.3% over a sample of 912 picks (pushes not included) with a population mean of 52.38% produces a t-value of 2.39 with a p-value of 0.0086, a indication that my positive results are likely not the product of luck.
+ CLV (Closing Line Value)
My plays at release consistently beat the closing line whether released early or late in the week.
NFL Only Specialist
The only sport I’m working on year-round is the NFL. I’m not handicapping 200 or more games per week like other services that offer multiple sports and I’m not spending unnecessary time doing write-ups and marketing. I’m focused exclusively on the NFL and providing winning plays to my clients.
I combine predictive modeling, situational analysis and subjective factors to forecast winners.
One of the few services that has documented every play ever released. All plays this season will be displayed shortly after kickoff, posted on Twitter, and graded against widely available lines. Go try and find other services plays and long term record, mine is posted front and center. Others either don’t display theirs or make it difficult to compile long term. Why? Simply put, because their long term record is terrible and they are trying to sell you coin flips. Most services are highly deceptive in the presentation of their records including many of the services that are considered reputable.