14 Year Documented NFL Record Against the Spread: 551-424-34 for 56.5% winners at odds of -1.1279 produce an adjusted win rate of 55.9%
Documented by the National Sports Monitor (2006 – Intellisports), The Sports Monitor (2007-2012 – Intellisports), and (2013-2015 as Mike O’Connor NFL at Dr Bob Sports). All plays 2016-19 were posted in Blog and on Twitter (@MikeOConnorNFL) shortly after kickoff for full transparency/documentation.
Average Return of +16.99% of Bankroll per season (NFL)
The sum total return on Intellisports investments far exceed the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average & the S&P 500 over the same time period (14 years) and outperforms any other reputable NFL service that I am aware of. In addition, many other services pad their record by releasing plays where their release number isn’t widely available or just simply make up or hide their long-term records. Be very wary unless a service can produce reliable documentation of their record and you are comfortable with their overall methodology.
T-test – An important statistical test of any handicapper
The t-test can help look for evidence of forecasting skill by investigating the likelihood that a profit from a series of wagers could have happened by chance. A t-test of my NFL results over the past 14 years produces the following:
A One-Sided T-Test on an adjusted win percentage of 55.9% over a sample of 975 picks (pushes not included) with a population mean of 52.38% produces a t-value of 2.21 with a p-value of 0.0136, a indication that my positive results are likely not the product of luck.
+ CLV (Closing Line Value)
My plays at release consistently beat the closing line whether released early or late in the week.
NFL Only Specialist
The only sport I’m working on year-round is the NFL. I’m not handicapping 200 or more games per week like other services that offer multiple sports and I’m not spending unnecessary time doing write-ups and marketing. I’m focused exclusively on the NFL and providing winning plays to my clients.
I combine predictive modeling, situational analysis and subjective factors to forecast winners.
One of the few services that has documented every play ever released. All plays this season will be displayed shortly after kickoff, posted on Twitter, and graded against widely available lines. Go try and find other services plays and long term record, mine is posted front and center. Others either don’t display theirs or make it difficult to compile long term. Why? Simply put, because their long term record is terrible and they are trying to sell you coin flips. Most services are highly deceptive in the presentation of their records including many of the services that are considered reputable.