15 Year Documented NFL Record Against the Spread: 621-480-39 for 56.4% winners (55.8% odds adjusted)
Documented by the National Sports Monitor (2006 – Intellisports), The Sports Monitor (2007-2012 – Intellisports), and (2013-2015 as Mike O’Connor NFL at Dr Bob Sports). All plays 2016-20 were posted in Blog and on Twitter (@MikeOConnorNFL) shortly after kickoff for full transparency/documentation.
10,000 simulations of an average Intellisports NFL season with an ROI of 6.5% based on 125 plays with a starting bankroll of 100,000 and an average bet size of 3.3% (risking $3,300) produces the following:
|Median Ending Bankroll:||
|Avg Ending Bankroll:||
|Chance of Loss at End:||
Chance of 50.00% loss:
|70% Confidence Interval:||
|95% Confidence Interval:||
Average Return of +18.1% of Bankroll per season (NFL)
As an investment – Intellisports investments far exceed the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the same time period (15 years)- the Dow has averaged a gain of +8.38% from 2006-2020 while we have averaged +18.1% – compare it to any other financial benchmark to see how good that actually is. It also outperforms any other reputable NFL service that I am aware of. In addition, many other services pad their record by releasing plays where their release number isn’t widely available or just simply make up or hide their long-term records. Be very wary unless a service can produce reliable documentation of their record and you are comfortable with their overall methodology.
T-test – An important statistical test of any handicapper
The t-test can help look for evidence of forecasting skill by investigating the likelihood that a profit from a series of wagers could have happened by chance. A t-test of my NFL results over the past 15 years produces the following:
A One-Sided T-Test on an adjusted win percentage of 55.8% over a sample of 1101 picks (pushes not included) with a population mean of 52.38% produces a t-value of 2.26 with a p-value of 0.0119, a indication that my positive results are likely not the product of luck.
+ CLV (Closing Line Value)
Overall CVL (2006-2020) – My release line has been (+.437) points better than close. 52.7% of the time my release line was better than the closing line, 34.8% of the time my release line was the same as the closing line. My release line was worse than the closing line just 12.5% of the time.
NFL Only Specialist
The only sport I’m working on year-round is the NFL. I’m not handicapping 200 or more games per week like other services that offer multiple sports and I’m not spending unnecessary time doing write-ups and marketing. I’m focused exclusively on the NFL and providing winning plays to my clients.
I combine predictive modeling, situational analysis and subjective factors to forecast winners.
All plays historically (2006-2019) have been displayed shortly after kickoff, posted on Twitter, and graded against consensus widely available offshore lines. In 2020 I began grading against legal US books including Fanduel, Draftkings, William Hill, Pointsbet, BetMGM, always posting just after kickoff on Twitter for transparency.
Go try and find other services plays and long term record, mine is posted front and center. Others either don’t display theirs or make it difficult to compile long term. Why? Simply put, because their long term record is terrible and they are trying to sell you coin flips. Most services are highly deceptive in the presentation of their records including many of the services that are considered reputable.