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NFL Week 12 – Sunday Night Play

3% Green Bay Packers +3.5 (-120)

Author Mike O'ConnorPosted on November 24, 2019November 24, 2019Categories Uncategorized

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2020 NFL Record

2020W/L/TWin%% of Bankroll won
63-52-454.8%+19.1%

Methods

I combine predictive modeling, situational analysis and subjective factors to forecast winners.  One of my models incorporates elements of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to provide play-by-play micro-level context and is based on the great work the folks at Football Outsiders have done. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

HISTORY

I’ve had 18 football seasons since I started Intellisports in 2006 (14 in the NFL and 4 in College Football) and I have been below .500 only once in those 18 football seasons.Over that time period my College record (2006-2009) is 272-225 for 54.7% winners and my very worst CFB season I was 60-60. So, in my history, including every play that I have ever released I am a documented 821-646 for 56.0%. While I’m not handicapping College Football currently, the reason I mention my College record as well is to point out that including every game that I have ever released in my history (over 1400 games), I’ve won 56.0% of my picks.  There aren’t many services that can provide you a list of every play they’ve ever made long-term (across all sports that they decide to handicap) with a 56% win rate over a span of 14 years.

Recent Posts

  • NFL Wild Card Playoffs Recap
  • NFL Wild Card Playoffs Recap
  • NFL Week 17 Recap
  • NFL Week 16 Recap
  • NFL Week 15 Recap

Yearly Documented Records:

2006: 40-24 (62.5%) 
2007: 35-30 (53.8%) 
2008: 46-29 (61.3%) 
2009: 35-27 (56.5%) 
2010: 55-38 (59.1%) 
2011: 41-25 (62.2%) 
2012: 36-29 (55.4%) 
2013: 38-32 (54.3%) 
2014: 30-30 (50.0%) 
2015: 30-35 (46.2%) 
2016: 55-32 (63.2%)
2017: 40-29 (58.0%)
2018: 38-33 (53.5%)
2019: 32-31 (50.8%)
Total: 551-424 (55.9% adjusted win %)

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