I hope you enjoyed a free full season of my NFL plays in 2020 (we went 70-56-5 for 55.6% winners and +33.76% of bankroll) as I gave everything away for free last year considering the hardship that COVID brought to many people at that time as well as the uncertainty of the season. Thankfully, it appears that much of that is behind us as we move into the 2021 NFL season.
Leading into last season I decided to adjust my methods which led to more plays (131 plays in 2020 as compared to an average of 72 plays per year from 2006-2019) and that translated into my best season in 4 years. That adjustment will continue in 2021. As a result, we’ll have around 85% more plays than what I had historically released, landing somewhere around 120-140 plays I’m anticipating.
In 2020 my sides went 60-45-5 (57.02%) for +29.75%. 1st half sides went 1-1 for -1.8%. Totals went 0-1 for -3.3%. All other plays (futures, props, teasers) went 9-9 for +9.11% of bankroll.
Overall, my 15-year documented record against the spread in the NFL is 621-480-39 for 56.4% winners (55.8% odds adjusted). Simply put, that’s as good as it gets.
Including the 2020 season, sides are 571-430-39 for 57.0% winners. 1st Half Sides are 10-5 for +11.34% of bankroll, Totals are 13-21, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for +7.65% of bankroll, and teasers/parlays are 15-15 for -4.23% of bankroll. Futures/props are 5-5 for +10.0% of bankroll.
As an investment, my plays have performed much better than the common financial benchmarks (Dow, S&P, etc.), over the same time-period (15 years) with an average of +18.1% of bankroll won per season. (Dow averaged +8.38%)
My record has been remarkably consistent over time (14 of 15 NFL seasons with an ATS record >=.500)
Overall CLV (closing line value 2006-2020) – My release line has been nearly a half point per game better than the closing line on average (+.437)
Overall, 52.7% of the time my release line was better than the closing line, 34.8% of the time my release line was the same as the closing line. My release line has been worse than the closing line just 12.5% of the time on over 1100 plays.
Be aware that in 2020 I adjusted my release times to include some Sunday night releases to take advantage of the soft early numbers – that will continue in 2021. For the first 14 years of the service I didn’t release anything before Tuesday in almost all cases (and most plays later in the week) to make sure clients books had lines posted (which would make CLV that much harder to achieve since I wasn’t releasing plays into a soft Sunday night/early market). My 2020 CLV reflected the change as my release line was +.556 points per game better than the closing line on average. I’m expecting similar value moving forward with Sunday night releases included in 2021.
I will be releasing everything that I play – including the futures, props, and teasers. Additionally, I’ll likely have 2nd half plays this season as well. The idea is to offer up everything that I play to allow those with access the ability to generate additional revenue. My personal record over time has been slightly better than my widely available record that I have documented from 2006-2019. This change will allow subscribers to take advantage of that moving forward. Be aware that around 95% of what I release will be widely available at the time of release (the futures, props, and teasers may not be found everywhere but will be available at select books).
That being said – It is especially important for you to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks and to play the games as soon as you can after release – particularly the Sunday night/Monday AM releases for the next week’s slate of games. Having access to multiple books will be necessary to take advantage of the best numbers available.
With training camps now officially opening, I’m offering a 15% discount for the NFL Full Season Package for the next week only. The standard price after this week will be $700. With the 15% discount the price of $595 will be available until August 1st so take advantage now!
Every play (including sides, totals, teasers, futures, props, and 2nd half plays) that I release starting Week 1 and running all the way through the playoffs and the Super Bowl. Plays will be sent via email (text upon request).