Since the inception of Intellisports in 2006, I have been releasing NFL plays (2006-2019) and College Football plays (2006-2009) with great success. While my long-term record in the NFL has been very good I also offered a College Football service for four years (2006-2009) that produced a record of 272-225 for 54.7% winners documented independently. I have nothing to hide – all my plays and records are visible for all to see and every NFL play ever released can be found in the NFL Picks Archive page.
Unfortunately, almost all other handicapping services and almost all monitoring services now make it nearly impossible to compile long-term records. There are reasons for that – handicapping services don’t want you to know what their long-term record is because it’s just not very good and monitoring services don’t want to give you free space on their site if you are not a current client of theirs.
With full transparency and documentation, adding up every play that I have ever released I am 891-702 for 55.9% (combined NFL and CFB) for +332.63% of bankroll. That’s an average of +22.18% of bankroll won per year. The NFL alone has accounted for an average of +18.09% of bankroll won per season. There aren’t many sports services that have produced results comparable to that over that time period. In fact, these returns (over the same time period) put our results in an elite class of investment returns, in any financial market.
My method for forecasting winners comes from combining predictive modeling, situational analysis and subjective factors. Techniques that range from regression analysis and optimization to Monte Carlo simulations that determine probability distributions form the basis of my method.
I don’t spend any time on write-ups anymore as I found that they took away from my primary focus on finding edges that I could exploit for myself and my clients. It’s important as a consumer to realize that write-ups are simply marketing tools. Would you like your investment adviser spending lots of time on marketing or on finding profitable spots to invest?
Personally, I prefer to spend all the time that I can looking for edges to exploit for myself and my clients in an effort to maximize profits. I’ll let my record speak for itself.
15 YEAR DOCUMENTED NFL RECORD: 621-480-32 for 55.8% adjusted win %(includes playoffs)
2006: 40-24 (62.5%) 2007: 35-30 (53.8%) 2008: 46-29 (61.3%) 2009: 35-27 (56.5%) 2010: 55-38 (59.1%) 2011: 41-25 (62.2%) 2012: 36-29 (55.4%) 2013: 38-32 (54.3%) 2014: 30-30 (50.0%) 2015: 30-35 (46.2%) 2016: 55-32 (63.2%) 2017: 40-29 (58.0%) 2018: 38-33 (53.5%) 2019: 32-31 (50.8%) 2020: 70-56 (55.6%)