NFL Week 4 Recap

NFL Week 4: 3-6 for -10.95%

2020 YTD:  9-14 for -14.2%

Packers -5.5 3
Raiders +3.5 (-115) -3.45
Dolphins +4.5 (+107) -3
Bears +3 (-120) -3.6
Lions +4 3
Saints -4 -3.3
Panthers +3 (+100) 3
Jaguars +3 -3.3
Jets +1 -3.3
-10.95

 

NFL Week 4 Recap

NFL Week 4:  2-7 for -17.25%

2020 YTD: 8-15 for -20.5%

 

Packers -5.5 -3.3
Raiders +3.5 (-115) -3.45
Dolphins +4.5 (+107) -3
Bears +3 (-120) -3.6
Lions +4 3
Saints -4 -3.3
Panthers +3 (+100) 3
Jaguars +3 -3.3
Jets +1 -3.3
-17.25

NFL Week 3 Recap

Ravens -3 (-125) -3.75
 Eagles -4.5 -3.3
Bears +3.5 3
Saints -3 -1.65
Packers +4 3
Giants +4.5 -3.3
Patriots -5 3
Jaguars -2.5 -115 -3.45

We went 3-5 for -6.45% of bankroll in Week 3.  That puts us at 6-8 for -3.25% for the season.  Great line value, not great results.

NFL Week 2 Recap

Week 2:  2-2 for +1.7% of bankroll

2020 NFL YTD:  3-3 for +3.2% of bankroll

We won on the 49ers -6.5 and the Raiders +6 and lost with the Min/Ind Over 48 (all 3%) and the 3 leg parlay for 1%(Chiefs -2.5, Bucs -2.5 and Falcons +130).  I caught this little gem that didn’t soften the blow of losing a 20 point lead with the Falcons (in which case we would have won our parlay at +294):

Before Sunday, teams with 39 or more points and no turnovers had been 440-0 since 1933, the first year the NFL began keeping track of turnovers.

Keep it moving.

NFL 2020 Season Free

I hope everyone is doing well and staying safe and healthy in these crazy times.

There is no doubt that this season will be unlike any other due to the Covid pandemic and that will introduce more uncertainty, variance, and luck into the prediction equation.  I expect the sport of football to be impacted more than other sports due to the close proximity of OL/DL face to face interaction (unless rule changes are made) and that will trickle down through the team.  As a result, I expect a lot of roster and starting unit changes throughout the season – it will be difficult to assess team and unit strengths based on what will very likely be ever changing rosters.  Information will be key and I expect lines to move quickly on news so if you are following along you will likely need to be quick to place your bets as I will be looking to beat the line move at times, and to take advantage of the opportunities these moves may present other times.

I’ll likely have very early releases as lines begin to get posted on Sunday/Monday as well as others throughout the week.

In light of all of this, I don’t think anyone should be charging for picks this season, so I’ve decided to give this season away for free – everything I play will be posted on Twitter (@MikeOConnorNFL) so follow me there and set alerts to get notified when I post as I won’t be sending emails or texts this season.

I hope we get a full, exciting season of NFL football to enjoy.  I’m sure we can all use the entertainment and hopefully make some money along the way.

Good Luck!

Mike