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2021 NFL Full Season Discounted Package – Limited Time Only

Hello all,

I hope you enjoyed a free full season of my NFL plays in 2020 (we went 70-56-5 for 55.6% winners and +33.76% of bankroll) as I gave everything away for free last year considering the hardship that COVID brought to many people at that time as well as the uncertainty of the season. Thankfully, it appears that much of that is behind us as we move into the 2021 NFL season.

Leading into last season I decided to adjust my methods which led to more plays (131 plays in 2020 as compared to an average of 72 plays per year from 2006-2019) and that translated into my best season in 4 years. That adjustment will continue in 2021. As a result, we’ll have around 85% more plays than what I had historically released, landing somewhere around 120-140 plays I’m anticipating.

In 2020 my sides went 60-45-5 (57.02%) for +29.75%. 1st half sides went 1-1 for -1.8%. Totals went 0-1 for -3.3%. All other plays (futures, props, teasers) went 9-9 for +9.11% of bankroll.

Overall, my 15-year documented record against the spread in the NFL is 621-480-39 for 56.4% winners (55.8% odds adjusted). Simply put, that’s as good as it gets.

Including the 2020 season, sides are 571-430-39 for 57.0% winners. 1st Half Sides are 10-5 for +11.34% of bankroll, Totals are 13-21, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for +7.65% of bankroll, and teasers/parlays are 15-15 for -4.23% of bankroll. Futures/props are 5-5 for +10.0% of bankroll.

As an investment, my plays have performed much better than the common financial benchmarks (Dow, S&P, etc.), over the same time-period (15 years) with an average of +18.1% of bankroll won per season. (Dow averaged +8.38%)

My record has been remarkably consistent over time (14 of 15 NFL seasons with an ATS record >=.500)

Overall CLV (closing line value 2006-2020) – My release line has been nearly a half point per game better than the closing line on average (+.437)

Overall, 52.7% of the time my release line was better than the closing line, 34.8% of the time my release line was the same as the closing line. My release line has been worse than the closing line just 12.5% of the time on over 1100 plays.

Be aware that in 2020 I adjusted my release times to include some Sunday night releases to take advantage of the soft early numbers – that will continue in 2021. For the first 14 years of the service I didn’t release anything before Tuesday in almost all cases (and most plays later in the week) to make sure clients books had lines posted (which would make CLV that much harder to achieve since I wasn’t releasing plays into a soft Sunday night/early market). My 2020 CLV reflected the change as my release line was +.556 points per game better than the closing line on average. I’m expecting similar value moving forward with Sunday night releases included in 2021.

I will be releasing everything that I play – including the futures, props, and teasers. Additionally, I’ll likely have 2nd half plays this season as well. The idea is to offer up everything that I play to allow those with access the ability to generate additional revenue. My personal record over time has been slightly better than my widely available record that I have documented from 2006-2019. This change will allow subscribers to take advantage of that moving forward. Be aware that around 95% of what I release will be widely available at the time of release (the futures, props, and teasers may not be found everywhere but will be available at select books).

That being said – It is especially important for you to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks and to play the games as soon as you can after release – particularly the Sunday night/Monday AM releases for the next week’s slate of games. Having access to multiple books will be necessary to take advantage of the best numbers available.

With training camps now officially opening, I’m offering a 15% discount for the NFL Full Season Package for the next week only. The standard price after this week will be $700. With the 15% discount the price of $595 will be available until August 1st so take advantage now!

What’s included:
Every play (including sides, totals, teasers, futures, props, and 2nd half plays) that I release starting Week 1 and running all the way through the playoffs and the Super Bowl. Plays will be sent via email (text upon request).

2021 NFL Full Season Discounted Package – Limited Time Offer

Hello all,

I hope you enjoyed a free full season of my NFL plays in 2020 (we went 70-56-5 for 55.6% winners and +33.76% of bankroll) as I gave everything away for free last year considering the hardship that COVID brought to many people at that time as well as the uncertainty of the season. Thankfully, it appears that much of that is behind us as we move into the 2021 NFL season.

Leading into last season I decided to adjust my methods which led to more plays (131 plays in 2020 as compared to an average of 72 plays per year from 2006-2019) and that translated into my best season in 4 years. That adjustment will continue in 2021. As a result, we’ll have around 85% more plays than what I had historically released, landing somewhere around 120-140 plays I’m anticipating.

In 2020 my sides went 60-45-5 (57.02%) for +29.75%. 1st half sides went 1-1 for -1.8%. Totals went 0-1 for -3.3%. All other plays (futures, props, teasers) went 9-9 for +9.11% of bankroll.

Overall, my 15-year documented record against the spread in the NFL is 621-480-39 for 56.4% winners (55.8% odds adjusted). Simply put, that’s as good as it gets.

Including the 2020 season, sides are 571-430-39 for 57.0% winners. 1st Half Sides are 10-5 for +11.34% of bankroll, Totals are 13-21, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for +7.65% of bankroll, and teasers/parlays are 15-15 for -4.23% of bankroll. Futures/props are 5-5 for +10.0% of bankroll.

As an investment, my plays have performed much better than the common financial benchmarks (Dow, S&P, etc.), over the same time-period (15 years) with an average of +18.1% of bankroll won per season. (Dow averaged +8.38%)

My record has been remarkably consistent over time (14 of 15 NFL seasons with an ATS record >=.500)

Overall CLV (closing line value 2006-2020) – My release line has been nearly a half point per game better than the closing line on average (+.437)

Overall, 52.7% of the time my release line was better than the closing line, 34.8% of the time my release line was the same as the closing line. My release line has been worse than the closing line just 12.5% of the time on over 1100 plays.

Be aware that in 2020 I adjusted my release times to include some Sunday night releases to take advantage of the soft early numbers – that will continue in 2021. For the first 14 years of the service I didn’t release anything before Tuesday in almost all cases (and most plays later in the week) to make sure clients books had lines posted (which would make CLV that much harder to achieve since I wasn’t releasing plays into a soft Sunday night/early market). My 2020 CLV reflected the change as my release line was +.556 points per game better than the closing line on average. I’m expecting similar value moving forward with Sunday night releases included in 2021.

I will be releasing everything that I play – including the futures, props, and teasers. Additionally, I’ll likely have 2nd half plays this season as well. The idea is to offer up everything that I play to allow those with access the ability to generate additional revenue. My personal record over time has been slightly better than my widely available record that I have documented from 2006-2019. This change will allow subscribers to take advantage of that moving forward. Be aware that around 95% of what I release will be widely available at the time of release (the futures, props, and teasers may not be found everywhere but will be available at select books).

That being said – It is especially important for you to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks and to play the games as soon as you can after release – particularly the Sunday night/Monday AM releases for the next week’s slate of games. Having access to multiple books will be necessary to take advantage of the best numbers available.

With training camps now officially opening, I’m offering a 15% discount for the NFL Full Season Package for the next week only. The standard price after this week will be $700. With the 15% discount the price of $595 will be available until August 1st so take advantage now!

What’s included:
Every play (including sides, totals, teasers, futures, props, and 2nd half plays) that I release starting Week 1 and running all the way through the playoffs and the Super Bowl. Plays will be sent via email (text upon request).

Super Bowl Recap

NFL YTD Final:  70-56-5 for 55.6% winners and +33.61% of bankroll.

Super Bowl:  2-1 for +3.5% of bankroll

We had a good day in the Super Bowl winning with the Bucs +3.5 (-120) for 3% and also winning with Pat Mahomes Over 41.5 pass attempts (-115) for 1%.  We lost the playoff prop on Clyde Edwards Helaire most rushing yards for -.5%.

Overall, it was a very good season with an adjusted win percentage of 63.1% winners (the calculation takes into account the prices games are played at (-115, +100, -120, etc. and adjusts back to standard -110 odds.  So, at -110 odds my winning percentage this season is 63.1% (mainly because I won SB participants TB and KC at +1900).

I’ll be back with a full detailed season long breakdown later this week.

Cheers.

NFL YTD Updated Record

Just a heads up that I ran my adjusted win percentage as I always do at the end of the season and I noticed a grading error in my Week 4 Blog post that led to an incorrect YTD calculation in my Week 5 Blog Recap post that added an extra loss into the bankroll for -3.3%.  It showed 13-17 for -11.95% of bankroll when the correct record was 13-16 for -8.65% of bankroll.

My updated record is 68-55-5 for 55.2% winners (unadjusted) for +30.11% of bankroll.

My adjusted win percentage this season, which takes into account the prices you play at (and bolstered by the futures win on SB participants KC and TB at +1900) is now 62.7%

NFL YTD:  68-56-4 for 54.8% winners and +26.81% of bankroll

Championship Games:  3-2 for +9.55% of bankroll

Sides: 60-45-4 for 57.1%

Totals: 0-1

1st half sides: 0-1

Teasers: 6-8

Props: 1-0

Futures: 1-1

We split our sides plays on the Packers -3 (-115) and the Chiefs -2.5 (-120) but won our prop on Aaron Jones Under 61.5 rushing yards -110 and the futures play (released on Twitter October 24th) on the Super bowl finalists (for .5% (Cheifs and Bucs +1900).  We lost our Super Bowl Finalists bet on the Steelers and the Bucs +4100 (for .5%- also released Oct 24th).  We picked up +9.55% of bankroll this week on the strength of cashing the SB futures bet.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Recap

NFL YTD:  65-54-4 for 54.5% winners and +17.26% of bankroll

YTD Sides:  59-44-4 (57.3%)

YTD 1st Half Sides: 0-1

YTD Totals: 0-1

YTD Teasers:  6-8

 

Divisional Playoffs 2-2 for -1.84%

2% Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-113)  +2.0%
3% 2 team teaser – Packers -2.5 and Ravens +8.5 -113   -3.39%
3% Cleveland Browns +10  +3.0%
3% New Orleans Saints -3 (-115) -3.45%

NFL Wild Card Playoffs Recap

NFL YTD:  63-52-4 for 54.8% winners and +19.1% of bankroll

Wild Card Playoffs: 2-2 for -.66%

YTD Sides: 57-43-4

YTD 1st Half Sides: 0-1

YTD Totals: 0-1

YTD Teasers:  6-7

Wild Card Plays:

3% Ravens -3.5                    +3

3% Colts +7 (-120)             +3

3% Seahawks -3 (-115)    -3.45

3% 2 team pick your own spread teaser: Buccaneers -2.5 and Steelers -2.5 (-107)                                      -3.21

NFL Wild Card Playoffs Recap

NFL YTD:  63-52-4 for 54.8% winners and +19.1% of bankroll

Wild Card Playoffs: 2-2 for -.66%

YTD Sides: 57-43-4

YTD 1st Half Sides: 0-1

YTD Totals: 0-1

YTD Teasers:  6-7

Wild Card Plays:

3% Ravens -3.5                    +3

3% Colts +7 (-120)             +3

3% Seahawks -3 (-115)    -3.45

3% 2 team pick your own spread teaser: Buccaneers -2.5 and Steelers -2.5 (-107)                                      -3.21

NFL Week 17 Recap

NFL YTD: 61-50-4 for 55.0% winners and +19.76% of bankroll

Week 17 : 3-2 for +2.55%

3% 2 team pick your own spread teaser: Packers -2.5 and Redskins -2.5 (+124) W 3.72
3% Houston Texans +7 W 3
3% 2 team pick your own spread teaser: Buccaneers -2.5 and Browns -2.5 (-129) L -3.87
3% Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 W 3
3% Cleveland Browns -9.5 L -3.3

NFL Week 16 Recap

NFL YTD:  58-48-5 for 54.7% winners and+17.21% of bankroll

NFL Week 16: 1-4-1 for -10.47% of bankroll

3% Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 (-105) L
3% New York Jets +7 (-115) W
3% 2 team 6 point teaser – Steelers +7.5 and Rams +7.5 (-111) L
3% Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-118) L
3% Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-115) L
3% LA Chargers -3 (-120) P