My NFL model, which performed very well for many years, tailed off in 2014 and then had a bad year in 2015. As a result, I have taken time this off-season to develop several new predictive models which have tested well and I’m encouraged by their out of sample results. One of my new models incorporates elements of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to provide micro-level context and is based on the great work the folks at Football Outsiders have done. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. The other model is a re-engineered compensated stats model. I’ll be using them both this season along with only the best situations out of the hundreds of NFL systems that are in my database. The combination of new predictive models and strong technicals along with subjective factors, and without the encumbrance of the write-ups, should get me back near my historical average (@56%) after my first ever below .500 season last year.
2006: 40-22 (64.5%)nationalsportsmonitor 2007: 35-30 (53.8%) thesportsmonitor 2008: 46-29 (61.3%) thesportsmonitor 2009: 34-24 (58.6%) thesportsmonitor 2010: 54-40 (57.4%) thesportsmonitor 2011: 40-25 (61.5%) thesportsmonitor 2012: 37-29 (56.1%) thesportsmonitor 2013: 38-32 (54.3%) Dr. Bob Sports 2014: 30-30 (50.0%) Dr. Bob Sports 2015: 30-35 (46.2%) Dr. Bob Sports Total: 384-296 (56.5%)
NFL only specialist focusing on sides with a documented record on sides of 374-281-19 for 57.1% and 178.4% of bankroll with an average of +17.8% of bankroll won per season (NFL only) – (totals since inception are 10-15 for -15.0% of bankroll)
384-296 for 56.5% winners independently documented by the National Sports Monitor (2006) ,The Sports Monitor (2007-2012), and Dr Bob Sports (2013-2015).
Net +163.4% of bankroll in the NFL · Average Return of +16.34% of bankroll in the NFL per season the past ten years which nearly triples the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+5.64% per year), S&P 500 (+6.09% per year), and other major indexes over the same time period. With global financial instability right now sports investing in my opinion is one of the best investments you can make.