SERVICES

2020 NFL Service:

I’ve decided to give the 2020 NFL Service away for FREE!  For access please follow @MikeOConnorNFL on Twitter.

NFL Releases

My service specializes in NFL sides and almost all of my plays historically have been in this category. My documented record on full game sides is 511-384-34 for 57.1%.   1st Half sides are 9-4.  I have occasionally released a rare full game totals play but they have gone just 13-20.  In 2016 and 2017 I added 1st half sides and totals as well as two-team six-point teasers into the mix:

Including the 2019 season, 1st Half Sides are 9-4 for +13.14% of bankroll, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for +7.65% of bankroll, and 2-team 6-point teasers are 9-9 for -6.05% of bankroll.

What’s included:
Every play that I release starting Week 1 and running through the playoffs and the Super Bowl.

Sides specifically have always been my specialty and have produced my best results.  Taking out all other plays my sides (full game and 1st half) have gone 520-388-34 for 57.3% winners.

Subscription Details

All official plays (not Free Plays/Opinions which won’t have a rating and won’t count in my record) will be rated as a percentage of bankroll and almost all plays will be suggested (to win) 3% plays.  We may have occasional smaller plays and rarely a 4% play.  No play will exceed a 4% rating.

At US Odds of (-1.1279) and a Win Percentage of 55.9%, using the Kelly Criterion (I play at @ 1/2 Kelly), my recommended stake is to win 3% for each wager generally.  Larger predicted edges get upgraded to 4% and lesser predicted edges are reduced.

An update that clearly details where we stand will be sent in the Weekly recap each week and posted for all to see in my Blog for full transparency.  All of my plays will also be posted on Twitter shortly after kickoff so you can track my progress independently.  You can also track them on the NFL Picks Archive page.

There will be no write-ups.

Volume
This depends on market conditions but I’d expect there to be somewhere between 70-90 plays in any given year.

Rating
All plays will be rated as a percentage of bankroll (to win) and most will be 3%.  There may also be occasional 2% or 4% plays.  For example, when I release a 3% play you will be risking 3.3% to win 3% (if given at standard -1.10 odds).

Grading

Plays will be graded using consensus widely-available lines.

Release Times:  TBD

Release Methods
Email – All plays will be sent via email.