2021 NFL Service:
My service specializes in NFL sides and almost all of my plays historically have been in this category. My documented record on all sides (1st half and full game) is 571-430-39 for 57.0%. 1st Half sides are 10-5. I have occasionally released a rare full game totals play but they have gone just 13-21. In 2016 and 2017 I added 1st half sides and totals as well as two-team six-point teasers into the mix:
Including the 2020 season, 1st Half Sides are 10-5 for +11.34% of bankroll, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for +7.65% of bankroll, and teasers/parlays are 15-15 for -4.23% of bankroll.
Every play that I release starting Week 1 and running through the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
Sides specifically have always been my specialty and have produced my best results. Taking out all other plays my sides (full game and 1st half) have gone 581-435-39 for 57.2% winners.
All official plays (not Free Plays/Opinions which won’t have a rating and won’t count in my record) will be rated as a percentage of bankroll and almost all plays will be suggested (to win) 3% plays. We may have occasional smaller plays and rarely a 4% play. No play will exceed a 4% rating.
At US Odds of (-1.1279) and a Win Percentage of 55.9%, using the Kelly Criterion (I play at @ 1/2 Kelly), my recommended stake is to win 3% for each wager generally. Larger predicted edges get upgraded to 4% and lesser predicted edges are reduced.
An update that clearly details where we stand will be sent in the Weekly recap each week and posted for all to see in my Blog for full transparency. All of my plays will also be posted on Twitter shortly after kickoff so you can track my progress independently. You can also track them on the NFL Picks Archive page.
There will be no write-ups.
This depends on market conditions but I’d expect there to be somewhere between 100-140 plays per season moving forward.
All plays will be rated as a percentage of bankroll (to win) and most will be 3%. There may also be occasional 2% or 4% plays. For example, when I release a 3% play you will be risking 3.3% to win 3% (if given at standard -1.10 odds).
All plays historically (2006-2019) have been displayed shortly after kickoff, posted on Twitter, and graded against consensus widely available offshore lines. In 2020 I began grading against legal US books including Fanduel, Draftkings, William Hill, Pointsbet, BetMGM, Sugarhouse. For transparency and tracking purposes I’ll continue to post plays on Twitter just after kickoff.
Release Times: TBD
Email – All plays will be sent via email.