2021 NFL Service:
Everything I play personally will be released in 2021 including sides, totals, teasers, futures, props, and 2nd half plays.
In 2020 my sides, which have consistently been very good year over year, went 60-45-5 (57.02%) for +29.75%. 1st half sides went 1-1 for -1.8%. Totals went 0-1 for -3.3%. All other plays (futures, props, teasers) went 9-9 for +9.11% of bankroll.
Overall, my 15 year documented record against the spread in the NFL is 621-480-39 for 56.4% winners (55.8% odds adjusted). Simply put, that’s as good as it gets.
Including the 2020 season, sides are 571-430-39 for 57.0 winners%. 1st Half Sides are 10-5 for +11.34% of bankroll, Totals are 13-21, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for +7.65% of bankroll, and teasers/parlays are 15-15 for -4.23% of bankroll. Futures/props are 5-5 for +10.0% of bankroll.
Every play that I release starting Week 1 and running through the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
Sides specifically have always been my specialty and have produced my best results. Taking out all other plays my sides (full game and 1st half) have gone 581-435-39 for 57.2% winners.
All official plays (not Free Plays/Opinions which won’t have a rating and won’t count in my record) will be rated as a percentage of bankroll and almost all plays will be suggested (to win) 3% plays. We may have occasional smaller plays and rarely a 4% play. No play will exceed a 4% rating.
At US Odds of (-1.1279) and a Win Percentage of 55.9%, using the Kelly Criterion (I play at @ 1/2 Kelly), my recommended stake is to win 3% for each wager generally. Larger predicted edges get upgraded to 4% and lesser predicted edges are reduced.
An update that clearly details where we stand will be sent in the Weekly recap each week and posted for all to see in my Blog for full transparency. All of my plays will also be posted on Twitter shortly after kickoff so you can track my progress independently. You can also track them on the NFL Picks Archive page.
There will be no write-ups.
This depends on market conditions but I’d expect there to be somewhere between 100-140 plays per season moving forward.
All plays will be rated as a percentage of bankroll (to win) and most will be 3%. There may also be occasional 2% or 4% plays. For example, when I release a 3% play you will be risking 3.3% to win 3% (if given at standard -1.10 odds).
All plays historically (2006-2019) have been displayed shortly after kickoff, posted on Twitter, and graded against consensus widely available offshore lines. In 2020 I began grading against legal US books including Fanduel, Draftkings, William Hill, Pointsbet, BetMGM, Sugarhouse. For transparency and tracking purposes I’ll continue to post plays on Twitter and my Blog just after kickoff.
Release Times: Plays will be released at times as early as Sunday night and then scattered throughout the week (likely release times will be Sunday around 7-8PM EST, Tuesday between 6-9PM EST, Friday between 5-9PM EST and Sunday AM). I’ll also release plays as needed as throughout the week but I’ll try to keep to those time-frames.
Email – All plays will be sent via email. Text messages can also be sent upon request.