SERVICES

2019 NFL Service:

NFL Releases

My service specializes in NFL sides and almost all of my plays historically have been in this category. My documented record on full game sides is 482-357-32 for 57.6%.   1st Half sides are 8-3.  I have occasionally released a rare full game totals play but they have gone just 13-20.  In 2016 and 2017 I added 1st half sides and totals as well as two-team six-point teasers into the mix:

Including the 2018 season, 1st Half Sides are 8-3 for +13.65% of bankroll, 1st Half Totals are 7-4 for 63.6%% winners and +7.65% of bankroll, and 2-team 6-point teasers are 9-9 for -6.05% of bankroll.

What’s included:
Every play that I release starting Week 1 and running through the playoffs and the Super Bowl for the Full Season Packages, 4 weeks of plays for the Monthly package, and 1 week of plays for the Weekly package.

Sides specifically have always been my specialty and have produced my best results.  Taking out all other plays my sides (full game and 1st half) have gone 490-360-32 for 57.6% winners (57.0% adjusted for juice).  The 2019 service will feature sides only for official plays (I may have some opinions on totals or teasers).  I’m sticking with what I do best.  

Subscription Details

All official plays (not Free Plays/Opinions which won’t have a rating and won’t count in my record) will be rated as a percentage of bankroll and almost all plays will be suggested (to win) 3% plays.  We may have occasional 2% plays and rarely a 4% play.  No play will exceed a 4% rating and no play will be less than a 2% rating.

At US Odds of (-1.1282) and a Win Percentage of 56.9%, using the Kelly Criterion (I use a conservative estimate and play at @ 1/3 Kelly), my recommended stake is to win 3% for each wager generally.  Larger predicted edges get upgraded to 4% and lesser predicted edges are reduced to 2%.

An update that clearly details where we stand will be sent in the Weekly recap each week and posted for all to see in my Blog for full transparency.  All of my plays will also be posted on Twitter shortly after kickoff so you can track my progress independently.  You can also track them on the NFL Picks Archive page.

There will be no write-ups.

Volume
This depends on market conditions but I’d expect there to be somewhere between 70-90 plays in any given year.

Rating
All plays will be rated as a percentage of bankroll (to win) and most will be 3%.  There may also be occasional 2% or 4% plays.  For example, when I release a 3% play you will be risking 3.3% to win 3% (if given at standard -1.10 odds).

Grading

Plays will be graded using consensus widely-available lines.

Release Times
First releases of the week could come as early as Monday between 6-9PM EST.  After that, plays will be released at any time between the hours of 9AM EST and 9PM EST.  All plays will be released no later than an hour before kickoff so be prepared for releases between 9AM and noon EST on Sunday.

Release Methods
Email – All plays will be sent via email.  Text messages will also be an option but keep in mind that they are generally less reliable.  Clients should contact mike-oconnor@intellisports.com with the specific email and mobile device number and service provider they want plays sent to. Otherwise, the Paypal purchase email will be used.