I’ve had fourteen football seasons since I started Intellisports in 2006 (10 in the NFL and 4 in College Football). Last season was my first ever season below .500. I’ll say it again. My first ever season below .500. And you don’t have to take my word for it like many other services, as all of my plays have been independently documented. It’s been a remarkable run – one that very, very few have been able to achieve. Over that time period my College record (2006-2009) is 272-225 for 54.7% winners and my very worst CFB season I was 60-60 (documented at www.nationalsportsmonitor.com (2006) and www.thesportsmonitor.com 2007-2012). So, in my history, including every play that I have ever released I am a documented 656-521 for 55.7% (combined NFL and CFB) for +224.9% of bankroll. That’s an average of +22.5% of bankroll won per season. While I’m not handicapping College Football this season, the reason I mention my College record as well is to point out that including every game that I have ever released in my history (over 1200 games), I’m over 55%. There aren’t many services that can provide you a list of every play they’ve ever made long-term with a better than 55% win rate. I have a history of consistent winning and with the changes I’m making this season, I’m looking forward to getting back to near or above my long-term average.
My NFL model, which performed very well for many years, tailed off in 2014 and then had a bad year in 2015. As a result, I have taken time this off-season to develop several new predictive models which have tested well and I’m encouraged by their out of sample results. One of my new models incorporates elements of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to provide micro-level context and is based on the great work the folks at Football Outsiders have done. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. The other model is a re-engineered compensated stats model. I’ll be using them both this season along with only the best situations out of the hundreds of NFL systems that are in my database. The combination of new predictive models and strong technicals along with subjective factors, and without the encumbrance of the write-ups, should get me back near my historical average (@56%) after my first ever below .500 season last year.